Gorchakov’s Principle

Yaroslav Lissovolik

The Eurasian Development Bank’s chief economist

In parallel with Russia’s growing part on the global arena, the state of affairs within its contour has been drawing increasing attention. The internal problem most often in focus is insufficient economic growth rates. A thesis often referred to in this context is the proposition, which was widespread in the 1990s, that external influence cannot be maintained when a country’s internal economic conditions are weak since the growing external political ambitions will be limited with time by economic reality.

Strictly speaking, the supposition that the leading economic nation inevitably dominates foreign policies and that a country with internal economic imbalances cannot not rise on the global political arena has become somewhat irrelevant in recent years. Russia, which has been demonstrating negative GDP growth over several years, has shown capability for a successful breakthrough in world politics while the relatively successful American economy (with its significant reduction in unemployment and record high stock exchange indexes) has achieved inferior results in diplomacy.

The reason here is most probably not only in that the “power is in truth.” To put it simply, in addition to economic and environmental factors, more fundamental civilizational factors also play part. These are the ability to consolidate, remain stable and resist external pressure. They also have their limitations and, sooner or later, every nation has to “go to the roots” in order to begin to solve its internal problems. It’s even better when a country has a long-term vision of the interconnections of internal and external development imperatives and of their balancing in the long term.

In this context Russia could make a wise use now of a principle devised in the 19th century by the Russian Chancellor Gorchakov, suggesting that Russia’s foreign policy should be inferior to its domestic policy. Since that time several historical cycles took place where this principle supported the country’s interior progress, primarily during the periods of active modernisation. This happened in the late 19th century, when Russia’s economy underwent modernisation while external pressure reduced, and during the Soviet periods of industrialisation and post-war development. Time has probably come for a new cycle of upgrades, which should be supported by the country’s stronger position on the global arena.

What does Gorchakov’s principle mean today? As a very general rule, foreign policy should create conditions for the concentration of modernisation projects (La Russie se recueille) and their systematic fulfilment. Dostoevsky believed that the main thing economic development in Russia always lacked was the possibility to pursue long-term objectives and vectors and solve long-term tasks in a consistent manner without responding to endless external shocks. The task of Russia’s foreign policy is to neutralise the external threats of terrorism or political destabilisation in order to maintain systematic internal economic development.

As concerns specific economic policy measures, these include the preparation of a programme for Russia’s long-term development, which should include a strategy for establishing foreign economic alliances in all the key regions of the world. Russia needs to understand not only its strategic goals and security imperatives, but economic interests as well (including trade, investment, technology and intellectual targets). External stability can simplify the fulfilment of long-term infrastructure projects and the involvement of the private sector (both domestic and foreign) in the investment process. The effective use of the “soft power” can also improve the external background for the economy and alleviate the intensity of “external shocks.”

However, there are also internal stability factors that have practically no relation to external breakthroughs. A reduction in Russia’s economy dependency on oil prices is contingent on internal economic transformations aimed at advancing infrastructure, processing and the financial system. OPEC agreements to reduce production would hardly solve all the problems. It is more about external success, which provides more opportunities for systematic internal changes.

In essence, balancing internal and external priorities is similar to balancing the economy. If one of the factors is achieved it helps to strengthen the other. That said, the most important factor is definitely that of interior stability. Gorchakov’s principle is a good reference point to this end.